Ontario’s premier stood before a Toronto business community on Oct. 14 and told Canadian owners to stop waiting for Washington to change its mind.
Doug Ford’s keynote at the Empire Club of Canada was billed as a state-of-the-province address. Its message, as reported by Bloomberg News, was blunter: “Canada’s relationship with the United States has changed permanently. We can no longer depend on what has been the most durable, prosperous and secure economic partnership the world has ever known.” Ford continued, “We need to be prepared for the long haul. We need to plan as if tariffs are here for good.” Ford is right, and the people who most need to hear him work in Ottawa.
The duties he refers to are mostly Section 232 tariffs, which the United States imposes on national-security grounds. Bloomberg lists steel, aluminum, autos and lumber as the Canadian sectors they hit, and reports that Washington has put 50 per cent levies on a range of Canadian goods. Only the U.S. president can lift a Section 232 tariff, and on that evidence I doubt any successor will rush to. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly told Bloomberg in September that the tariffs have bipartisan support in the United States, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CTV News in August that he could not guarantee Democrats would remove them.
One could object that planning for permanence concedes too much, since members of Congress from both parties have urged Trump to ease the trade war and focus on China. That being said, no letter from Congress can change a Section 232 rate.
In some ways, pricing in tariff permanence might be the push the Canadian business community needs. Since the former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's trade deal bonanza between 2009 and 2015, Canada holds 15 free trade deals and other bilateral investment treaties with over 50 countries, including the EU. Despite this unprecedented market access, Canadian companies only export 30 per cent of their goods and services to countries other than the U.S. Pricing in permanent tariffs might help Canadian companies make the business case to diversify to new markets.
Ford’s own answer is to invest domestically, specifically in nuclear expansion and the Ring of Fire mining region. Those are the kinds of long-life assets that pay off whatever the tariff schedule says in a given year.
Ottawa’s part is harder, and its record so far is a record of temporary measures. On June 16, 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed to pursue a deal within 30 days. Carney suspended the talks on Aug. 21, 2026, which was 431 days after that promise, with no agreement. Over that time, the federal government states that it has provided “nearly $25 billion” in support for tariff-afflicted sectors. It seems as though Prime Minister Carney and the federal Liberals see tariffs as a storm to wait out, rather than a new reality.
The cost of waiting is already visible in the data. Stelco has said that up to 500 Hamilton-area layoffs will go ahead, and Statistics Canada reported that employment fell by 68,000 in September. Neither figure can be laid wholly at the tariffs’ door, but both show what a waiting strategy leaves behind. In my judgment, support cheques can bridge a quarter or two, but they cannot assure long-term viability of a Hamilton plant.
Planning for permanent tariffs therefore asks Ottawa for three things. First, it needs a written trade strategy that assumes Section 232 duties stay. Second, it needs to move support from short-term relief toward the kind of long-life projects Ford named, where the provinces are already planning investment. And third, it needs to publicly engage the Canadian business sector and map routes to new export markets.
Trump has said that tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel will rise to 50 per cent on Jan. 1, 2027, which is 78 days from now. Ford has already called for “dollar-for-dollar” counter-tariffs, which suggests to me the provinces will not wait quietly. The test for Ottawa is whether, before New Year’s Day, it gives auto and steel owners a plan they can invest against. If it does, Canadian firms will have the certainty Ford is calling for, and the long haul will start to look like a market where they can win.
