Albertans voted 75.73 per cent to 24.27 per cent to remain a Canadian province, according to unofficial Elections Alberta results as of 9:08 a.m. ET on Oct. 20. That was 1,371,562 votes for remain and 439,616 for starting the legal process toward a binding separation referendum, with 4,422 of 5,586 polls reporting. CBC News and CTV News projected a remain result overnight, and Elections Alberta says the official result is due on Oct. 29.
The separation question is settled for this premier’s term, and what follows depends on the nine questions that ran beside it. Questions 6 to 9 may bind their government under the Referendum Act, and for Premier Danielle Smith the constitutional fight with the feds is just beginning.
The other nine
All figures below are unofficial as of 9:08 a.m. ET Oct. 20, still being counted. Each percentage is of yes and no votes counted on that question.
- Question 1, more provincial control over immigration to lower levels: yes, leading, 55.97 per cent.
- Question 2, provincial programs limited to citizens, permanent residents, and Alberta-approved statuses: yes, leading, 56.72 per cent.
- Question 3, a 12-month residency wait for non-permanent residents before eligible for provincial social supports: yes, leading, 58.41 per cent.
- Question 4, a health and education fee for non-permanent residents: yes, leading, 57.16 per cent.
- Question 5, proof of citizenship to vote in provincial elections: yes, leading, 63.15 per cent.
- Question 6, provinces selecting King’s Bench and Appeal Court judges: yes narrowly ahead, 51.14 per cent.
- Question 7, abolishing the Senate: yes, ahead, 53.09 per cent.
- Question 8, opting out of federal programs with full funding: no, narrowly ahead, 51.33 per cent.
- Question 9, provincial laws taking priority over conflicting federal laws: yes narrowly ahead, 50.49 per cent.
What do the results mean?
The results of this vote are split into two categories, binding and non-binding. According to the Orders in Council, Questions 1 to 5 and Question 10 “are not to be binding,” according to Elections Alberta. This means that the Alberta government can choose whether to legislate or initiate a judicial review to enact the results.
However, Questions 6 to 9 are listed as constitutional questions. Section 4 of the Referendum Act says a majority result on a question relating to the Constitution “is binding... on the government that initiated the referendum.”
If Questions 6 to 9 fall under that section, section 4(2) requires the government, “as soon as practicable,” to take steps “within the competence of the Government of Alberta” to implement the results. With Questions 6, 8, and 9 within three points in the unofficial count, and Question 9 separated by about 7,400 votes, the official count will settle which way each question goes.
How we got here
On May 13, a Court of King’s Bench quashed the Chief Electoral Officer’s approval of Mitch Sylvestre’s separation petition application. Sylvestre and Alberta have both appealed that ruling, and Danielle Smith’s government ordered Question 10 on May 28.
The question also served the premier’s coalition. Abacus Data found that 52 per cent of United Conservative supporters would vote for the referendum option. 77 per cent of those who would consider voting for a referendum supported the UCP, Global News reported. Smith said on Oct. 9 she would hold no second separation referendum “as long as I’m premier” if remain won, CBC reported.
The reactions
Smith wrote on X overnight that “Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada.” Thomas Lukaszuk of Forever Canadian told a Forever Canadian rally that “as Canadians, as Albertans, we cannot go on fighting with each other,” and Monte Solberg of Vote to Stay said it was time “to put the question of separation to rest,” CBC reported.
Some may argue that a quarter of the vote is still a signal Ottawa (and Canada) should take seriously. Keith Wilson of Let Alberta Decide said “the conversation about Alberta’s future in Canada… will continue,” and Jeffrey Rath of the Alberta Prosperity Project said his members would work to take “ownership” of the UCP, CBC and Global reported.
While Albertans did not endorse separation, they did support motions that would see a more independent Alberta. If the results hold, Albertans have directed their government to take control of immigration, restrict public service access to non-residents, strengthen voter identification requirements, own judicial appointments, and work with other provinces to make constitutional amendments. All these signal a persistent mistrust of Ottawa, even if that mistrust was not large enough to leave confederation.
Ottawa’s part
Prime Minister Mark Carney called the result “a clear choice” in a statement issued on Oct. 20. In May he told the House of Commons that experts had advised the Clarity Act did not apply to Alberta’s question, and his government held no clarity vote, CBC reported. The statement noted that votes on the other questions were still being tallied and did not set out how Ottawa will respond if the immigration or constitutional questions hold their leads.
Carney urged Albertans to vote “No to the Nine” on Oct. 15, CBC reported, so one reason for his silence may be that any federal response before Oct. 29 would read as contesting a count still under way. Smith will address Albertans at 6:45 p.m. MT (8:45 p.m. ET) tonight on where the province goes from here.
All in all, it is a happy day for Canada. We remain united, and the resounding response will hopefully stem the secessionist calls. I also hope that this moment draws Canada's attention to the need for inclusive dialogue on energy, the environment, and other matters that impact Canadians differently based on where they live. Alberta is still one of the largest contributors to our national coffers. Continuing to take this economic engine or their response to the referendum for granted will not silence the voices of discontent. Respect and reconciliation are still needed.
