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# Public ownership can start Pacific Link, but it shouldn’t finish it
- URL: https://www.borealian.ca/pacific-link-public-ownership-risk/
- Published: 2026-10-08T06:18:53.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T05:25:58.000Z
- Description: Ottawa and Alberta will split the majority stake in a pipeline that has no construction financing in place. The case for public equity is real, but taxpayers need a financing plan, signed shippers, and an exit.
- Author: Beaverbrook
- Tags: Business & Markets, Energy

*Ottawa and Alberta will split the majority stake in a pipeline that has no construction financing in place. The case for public equity is real, but taxpayers need a financing plan, signed shippers, and an exit.*

On Oct. 1, Mark Carney's Cabinet [made Pacific Link the first project listed](https://orders-in-council.canada.ca/attachment.php?attach=49090&lang=en&ref=borealian.ca) in the national interest under the Building Canada Act. And for anyone who wants Canadian oil to reach new customers, that is real progress. The [Prime Minister’s Office says](https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/10/01/prime-minister-carney-lists-west-coast-oil-pipeline-now-known-pacific?ref=borealian.ca) the Major Projects Office will run a single federal review and aims to finish the project’s conditions by Sept. 1, 2027, in one document that would serve as the Canada Energy Regulator’s certificate and stand in for other federal permits.

Amidst the excitement of the green-lit project, there remains one weak point: ownership, and Ottawa and Alberta should plan their exit before they spend on construction. “Canada and Alberta will share equal ownership of Pacific Link,” the release says, yet the order’s [explanatory note](https://orders-in-council.canada.ca/attachment.php?attach=49090&lang=en&ref=borealian.ca) concedes that “a credible plan to finance the full construction of the Project is being developed.” The two governments have signed on as majority owners before anyone has shown how to pay for the pipeline, so public equity can get Pacific Link started, but it shouldn’t be what finishes it.

The explanatory note says federally owned Trans Mountain and the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, a provincial Crown corporation, will split 80 per cent of the equity equally. Pembina Pipeline will hold 10 per cent through construction, with an option on another 10 per cent once the line is in service, and Indigenous communities will be offered at least 10 per cent, financed through Ottawa’s and Alberta’s Indigenous Loan Guarantee Programs, according to the PMO. Public guarantees therefore stand behind the Indigenous stake as well. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called the listing “a significant victory for Alberta’s and Canada’s energy future,” but her government has taken on an equal share of the same unknowns.

Those unknowns start with the bill. The explanatory note puts the cost at $35.2 billion to $43.7 billion, a spread of $8.5 billion. [The Logic](https://thelogic.co/news/pacific-link-pipeline-national-interest-status/?ref=borealian.ca), citing a briefing by federal officials who were not named, reported that Ottawa and Alberta expect to spend about $4 billion over the next 11 months on planning and preparation, to be recovered through tolls if the project proceeds. However, none of these accounts says who absorbs that money if the project does not proceed. A risk brilliantly demonstrated with the delayed Trans Mountain Pipeline.

The prize is large enough to justify the effort. The explanatory note cites Royal Bank of Canada estimates of about $20 billion a year in incremental exports. The PMO says Pacific Link will carry “an additional one million barrels a day” of exports to Asia and create “140,000 jobs across the country,” although it has published no methodology for either figure.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s case, made at a news conference in Fort McMurray, is that an early commitment is worth paying for: “Now we’re making our position clear at the beginning of the process rather than at the end.” When pressed on public financing, Carney said, “The Canadian taxpayer is going to make a lot of money off this pipeline.” However, what this confident, nationalistic rhetoric masks is a troubling truth. The public purse (the taxpayer) is taking on this risk because no private sector entity is willing. Bills C-69 and C-48 have placed an effective moratorium on all major infrastructure projects by private enterprise. The regulatory uncertainty is too high to make the business case compelling enough to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the Canadian economy. This raises an obvious question. Why spend billions of dollars to build what a vote to repeal in the House of Commons could do for significantly less?

If this Liberal Government wants to attract foreign investment, build a national infrastructure, and unleash economic dynamism, repeal the bills standing in the way. The current system has a natural ceiling for the speed and number of major infrastructure projects it can build. It is directly linked to the bureaucratic capacity to review and approve. In truth, it is governed by the speed and focus of the PMO and Cabinet, where investment and approval decisions like Pacific Link are ultimately being made. Resetting Canada's regulatory environment to one managed by the Harper Government would see a return to new infrastructure starts that would be orders of magnitude greater than our current outlook.

Ownership leaves the remaining regulatory risk on the public balance sheet. The largest of those risks come from C-69 and duty to consult. The Government states that “Canada has fulfilled the duty to consult.” However, The Logic reports that “a majority of Indigenous communities consulted said they weren’t prepared to support the designation \[of a project in the national interest\].” The [Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs](https://www.ubcic.bc.ca/ubcic%5Frejects%5Fnational%5Finterest%5Fdesignation%5Fpacific%5Flink?ref=borealian.ca), an advocacy organization, rejects the national interest designation, and its president, Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, says the fight will be “hard-fought in the courtrooms.” UBCIC has threatened litigation but has filed nothing. If a suit does come during construction, the delay would land mostly on taxpayers. It should again be noted that this duty to consult risk comes from the same legislation that the Liberals refuse to repeal. 

Given that Ottawa and Edmonton are moving ahead with this enterprise, they owe it to Canadians to publish the full cost estimate and financing plan before the $4 billion, 11-month planning phase ends, and they should write their exit at the same time. Pembina’s deal suggests that private capital will buy in once the pipe is built and flowing. A schedule for the Crowns to sell down after the line enters service, published with the conditions due Sept. 1, 2027, would put an end date on public ownership. The nearer test is the spring open season. If producers sign long-term commitments for much of the line, Carney’s promise of a profit for taxpayers has its first evidence; if they won’t, Ottawa and Edmonton should consider the risk before any construction equity goes in.