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# Ottawa should get back to the table before Mexico sets Canada’s terms
- URL: https://www.borealian.ca/cusma-back-to-the-table-mexico/
- Published: 2026-10-12T20:49:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-15T21:16:46.000Z
- Description: Mexico is still negotiating with Washington ahead of the 2027 CUSMA review. Canada has held no formal talks since Aug. 21, and every month away lets a U.S.-Mexico deal shape the terms Ottawa will face.
- Author: Cartier
- Tags: International Affairs, Trade

On the evening of Aug. 21, Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended Canada’s trade negotiations with the United States and recalled the country’s negotiators to Ottawa. His [statement](https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/08/21/statement-prime-minister-carney-canada-us-trade-negotiations?ref=borealian.ca) said, “last-minute changes in the U.S. proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal.” At 12:01 a.m. ET on Aug. 22, American [duties](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/24/2026-17294/temporary-suspension-of-additional-duties-to-offset-canadian-discrimination-against-the-commerce-of?ref=borealian.ca) of 50 per cent took effect on about [C$28 billion of Canadian goods](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mark-carney-counter-tarrif-response-9.7316934?ref=borealian.ca). By Oct. 12, 52 days later, the two governments had held no formal meeting, the [National Post](https://nationalpost.com/news/how-a-mexico-u-s-trade-deal-could-set-the-terms-for-canada?ref=borealian.ca) reported.

Washington has used those weeks to open the next stage. On Oct. 2 the [Office of the U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/october/ustr-seeks-public-comment-2027-joint-review-usmca?ref=borealian.ca), the agency that runs American trade negotiations, asked for public comment on the 2027 joint review of CUSMA, with submissions due Jan. 12, 2027\. CUSMA, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, is the continental trade pact in force since July 1, 2020, and its term ends in 2036 unless each country confirms it wants another 16 years. The joint review is the meeting at which the three governments decide whether to extend that term, and Mexico is heading into the next one still negotiating with Washington. Ottawa should return to formal talks before the comment period closes, because every month away gives a U.S.-Mexico settlement more time to fix the terms Canada will later be offered.

The first joint review, held on July 1, ended without an extension. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a [statement](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-usmca-joint-review?ref=borealian.ca) that day: “The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.” The agreement “remains in force,” Greer added, and the [Federal Register notice](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/05/2026-20341/request-for-public-comments-and-notice-of-public-hearing-relating-to-the-operation-of-the-agreement?ref=borealian.ca) explains that the three governments will now review it every year until all of them confirm an extension or the term runs out.

Canada’s track has stalled because Ottawa walked out. Washington, for its part, has shown no hurry to restart. Carney put his position in his Aug. 22 [remarks](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-full-remarks-us-trade-talks-suspended-9.7317033?ref=borealian.ca): “We cannot accept what they’ve offered, and we will not give what they’ve asked.” Greer said in Milwaukee on Oct. 1 that “there are a handful of outstanding issues that are quite difficult to resolve,” [CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-trade-rep-pessimistic-about-canada-deal-9.7366028?ref=borealian.ca) reported. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Oct. 5 that he was in “no rush” to resume talks, [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW768905102026RP1/?ref=borealian.ca) reported.

The walkout was Carney’s decision, and he owns its costs. Carney promised to match the American duties dollar for dollar, and the [United States Surtax Order (2026)](https://gazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p2/2026/2026-09-23/html/sor-dors186-eng.html?ref=borealian.ca) has applied surtaxes of 15 to 50 per cent to U.S. goods since Sept. 8, which means Canadian importers pay tariffs too. His office said on Aug. 21 that Ottawa had provided “nearly $25 billion in support” in the 18 months before the walkout, without a breakdown as to what those supports were. In the week of Sept. 28 Carney said that “Canada stands ready to negotiate in good faith,” yet he has called no formal round.

Mexico’s track is slow, but it remains a formal negotiation. U.S. and Mexican teams held formal talks in July and postponed a September round, the National Post reported, and no date had been set for a fourth round as of Oct. 11, according to a tracker kept by the [International Compliance Professionals Association](https://www.icpainc.org/usmca-joint-review-tracker-home/?ref=borealian.ca) (ICPA), a trade-compliance group. Mexico has at least put its asks on the record. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said on Oct. 5 that Mexico wants lower Section 232 rates on autos, steel, and aluminum, according to the ICPA tracker. President Claudia Sheinbaum said at her Oct. 9 morning news conference that “lo que queremos es que disminuyan los aranceles de autos y de acero” (what we want is for the tariffs on autos and steel to come down), according to the presidency’s transcript as reported by [El Mediático](https://www.elmediatico.com/economia/sheinbaum-quiere-menos-aranceles-a-autos-y-acero?ref=borealian.ca). Section 232 duties are American tariffs imposed on national-security grounds.

I think whatever rate Mexico secures on those duties will become Canada’s de facto position. If Washington cuts its Section 232 rate on Mexican cars in an interim deal, it has little reason to offer Canada a lower one, since Mexico would then ask for the same. Canada’s veto does not reach this problem, because changes to CUSMA itself require all three countries, while Section 232 tariffs are set in Washington outside the agreement’s text.

Carlo Dade of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy told the National Post that Canada may have private channels to Washington, and said, “I wouldn’t read this as necessarily being sidelined.” He is partly right, since Greer says he speaks often with LeBlanc, and Greer met International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu in Wisconsin. Yet none of those contacts has produced a formal meeting since August, and private calls evidently do not change a tariff schedule. Carney has defended the walkout by saying his goal was “never a deal at any price or on any deadline.”

Canada was shut out of a U.S.-Mexico deal once before, and it got back in by negotiating. On Aug. 27, 2018, Trump announced a preliminary agreement in a teleconference with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and said, “[We made the deal with Mexico](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-during-teleconference-call-with-president-enrique-pena-nieto-mexico-discuss-the?ref=borealian.ca).” On Sept. 30, 34 days later, Chrystia Freeland, then foreign affairs minister and leader of Canada’s side, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced in a [joint statement](https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/september/joint-statement-united-states?ref=borealian.ca) an agreement “alongside Mexico” on what became the USMCA. The precedent shows that a two-country announcement can be folded into a three-country pact, and in 2018 that happened while Canada’s negotiators were still at work.

In 2026, those negotiators are in Ottawa. Carney should send LeBlanc and Charette back to Washington for a formal round with Greer before the U.S. and Mexico hold their fourth round, and definitely before Jan. 12, 2027, when the U.S. comment period closes. Otherwise, we might find ourselves negotiating on Mexico's terms.